Oil prices jump 13%

According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), two ships were directly hit by missiles, while an unknown projectile exploded near a third, Bloomberg reports.

Immediately after the opening of Asian markets, Brent crude oil soared above $82 per barrel, although the price jump subsequently corrected somewhat.

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Traffic through the strait, which provides transit for 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, has effectively ceased.

Disruptions in the strait could also have a significant impact on the prices of gas oil, jet fuel, and naphtha. In 2025, about 9% of the world's daily gas oil supplies and about 18% of jet fuel passed through Hormuz.

More than 150 tankers have anchored in the open waters of the Persian Gulf. The Maersk shipping company has announced that it is suspending voyages through the region and is redirecting its ships around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope.

Citigroup has raised its short-term forecast for Brent crude to $85 per barrel. The bank's analysts warn that if the region's infrastructure is damaged, prices could reach $120 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs has estimated the current “risk premium” in the price of oil at $18, which corresponds to the consequences of a complete halt in tanker traffic for six weeks.

JPMorgan Chase warns that if the conflict lasts more than three weeks, oil producers in the Persian Gulf will exhaust their storage capacity and be forced to halt production.

“We are considering a scenario in which disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will last more than a few days, up to weeks or months. In this case, we definitely see the possibility of reaching a price of $100 per barrel,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

On May 1, the OPEC+ countries agreed to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day to curb possible price increases. However, some experts doubt the effectiveness of this move, as it is physically impossible to transport the additional oil through the blocked strait.

Goldman Sachs analysts predict that natural gas prices in Europe could more than double if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is halted for even a month.

Photo: caspianbarrel.org.

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